So Who Makes the 2023 Rugby World Cup Squad for the All Blacks?
2023 is going to be a big year for our wāhine in a new era for the Black Ferns and an even bigger year for our tāne in the All Blacks, as they'll look to get both World Cups into our country's possession for the first time since 2017, when Fiao'o Fa'amausili lifted "Nancy" in celebrations.
Ian Foster, the outgoing All Blacks Head Coach, will end his tenure at the end of the World Cup, before handing the reins over to Scott Robertson; Foster has not sought a contract extension. Having a win rate of 67.65%, Foster's term has not been the worst of any All Blacks coach, but he has broken several records for the wrong reasons. With one final season approaching, we can expect Foster to continue deploying the key decision-makers for his team based on 2020s test-level minutes played, attack structures devised by Joe Schmidt, as well as the Jason Ryan front-row.
The YouTube video version of this article, uploaded on 29/05/2023.
But do any bolters still have a chance? Maybe. Let's examine a likely squad, looking into this prediction of the 33-man squad, from a position-by-position basis.
Hookers:
Dane Coles (pictured for the Hurricanes at Eden Park in 2021) will be retiring as a professional rugby player after the 2023 Rugby World Cup. Photo: Max Sharp.
Codie Taylor
Age: 32 years old
Height: 1.83m
Weight: 108kg
Test Caps: 76 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 1215 minutes (45% of minutes at hooker)
Clubs: Crusaders, Canterbury
Samisoni Taukei'aho
Age: 25 years old
Height: 1.83m
Weight: 115kg
Test Caps: 21 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 765 minutes (28% of minutes at hooker)
Clubs: Chiefs, Waikato
Dane Coles
Age: 36 years old
Height: 1.84m
Weight: 110kg
Test Caps: 84 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 550 minutes (20% of minutes at hooker)
Clubs: Hurricanes, Wellington
The trio of Taylor, Taukei'aho and Coles, are first, second and third respectively, on the Foster-era hooker depth chart.
Taylor and Coles have been long-serving members of the team; Coles' test debut was all the way back in a glorious 51-22 victory over Scotland in 2012, while he first played for Wellington in 2007 aged 20. Despite all the odds, Coles has managed to string minutes together at Super Rugby for 2023, having played just 8 games of professional rugby in 2022. Coles' tackle rate has been at 89% across his 7 games too, he'll be a certain selection should he recover from a concussion he is currently suffering from.
With a contract that is extended to 2025, Taylor's career has the chance to outlive Sam Cane's, lining him up for the chance of attending the 2027 Rugby World Cup as the lone survivor of the 2015 winners. Having overcome some lineout woes from 2022 and now peaking at the right time, Taylor will almost definitely start as he has played the most minutes in the Foster era.
The depth chart's structure not only enables the All Blacks to start their most experienced hooker of the Foster era, who will know the ins-and-outs of the team's strike moves better than anyone; but this structure allows for Taukei'aho, an even better player, to come off the bench and add impact. A breakout star in 2022, his form has continued into this season, where the Chiefs have won 12/13 games. The mouthwatering opportunity for Taukei'aho to come off the bench alongside other key decision-makers for the Chiefs, will also be huge for the team, given that side's massive success story in Super Rugby for 2023.
Props:
Chiefs prop Aidan Ross (pictured in 2022) is set to earn a re-call to test rugby after injuries have decimated the front row stocks. Photo: Max Sharp.
Ethan de Groot
Age: 24 years old
Height: 1.90m
Weight: 122kg
Test Caps: 13 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 566 minutes (20% of minutes at loosehead prop)
Clubs: Highlanders, Southland
Joe Moody
Age: 34 years old
Height: 1.88m
Weight: 120kg
Test Caps: 57 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 583 minutes (21% of minutes at loosehead prop)
Clubs: Crusaders, Canterbury
Aidan Ross
Age: 27 years old
Height: 1.89m
Weight: 111kg
Test Caps: 1 test
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 19 minutes (1% of minutes at loosehead prop)
Clubs: Chiefs, Bay of Plenty
Tyrel Lomax
Age: 27 years old
Height: 1.94m
Weight: 127kg
Test Caps: 23 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 896 minutes (33% of minutes at tighthead prop)
Clubs: Hurricanes, Tasman
Ofa Tu'ungafasi
Age: 31 years old
Height: 1.95m
Weight: 122kg
Test Caps: 50 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 530 minutes (played across two jerseys)
Clubs: Blues, Northland
Tamaiti Williams
Age: 22 years old
Height: 1.96m
Weight: 140kg
Test Caps: uncapped
Clubs: Crusaders, Canterbury
If this team does include any bolters, prop will be a prime area of contention; given that four of the ten props capped in the Foster era won't be able to participate at the World Cup due to injury. As for who starts at number 1 and 3, well that's obvious. Slowing opponents' ruck ball had been a huge weakness up until de Groot and Lomax became regular starters, while their strong scrummaging should reinforce the Jason Ryan status quo.
Joe Moody and Ofa Tu'ungafasi shape up as a duo to replace de Groot and Lomax off the bench, having both played 50 tests in their careers and signed contracts to 2024. Tu'ungafasi is well known as an impact player with mobility, while Moody will be back from ankle surgery in time for the Bledisloe Cup. While some coaches will be worried after Moody's previous ACL tear from 2022, his experience has been slotted straight back into action after previous injuries.
Third-choice players for World Cups do tend to be inexperienced and with other contenders out of form or injured, Aidan Ross and Tamaiti Williams will be in that very situation. Ross has luckily played one test before, though he was ruled out of a second test cap against Ireland in Wellington during the 2022 season. His performances from 2023 certainly warrant selection, while it goes without saying that Williams, the form prop for Super Rugby in 2023, deserves a cap. Williams is absolutely on Foster's radar as a pick for the All Blacks XV last year and he will be the heaviest All Black in history, should he take the field.
Locks:
Tupou Vaa'i (centre left) is seen pictured for the Chiefs against the Reds at his home ground at Yarrow Stadium, Taranaki. Photo: Max Sharp.
Sam Whitelock
Age: 34 years old
Height: 2.02m
Weight: 115kg
Test Caps: 143 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 1936 minutes (37% of minutes at lock)
Clubs: Crusaders, Canterbury
Brodie Retallick
Age: 31 years old
Height: 2.04m
Weight: 123kg
Test Caps: 100 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 1265 minutes (23% of minutes at lock)
Clubs: Chiefs, Hawke's Bay
Tupou Vaa'i
Age: 23 years old
Height: 1.98m
Weight: 118kg
Test Caps: 18 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 539 minutes (10% of minutes at lock)
Clubs: Chiefs, Taranaki
We'll get onto those two later, but Sam Cane as captain and Ardie Savea as the world's best player, are always the first two names on Foster's team sheet. This usage of two openside flankers in the starting lineup, has created the selection criteria of needing to start a third lock at 6, so that more ruck clearance options are available and so that there is a more balanced lineout.
With two contenders' injury struggles taking a toll, Whitelock, Retallick and Vaa'i, are set to be the trio of specialist locks, with two lock-6 hybrid players picked in the loose forwards.
Now the most-capped player still active at test level, Whitelock is just 7 tests away from becoming the second player to reach 150 test caps. The lone survivor left from the 2011 campaign, he is also in line to win a third World Cup in his fourth tournament. Whitelock has combined with fellow 100-test veteran Brodie Retallick in the second row numerous times and as the first-choice combo since 2012, the two will look for one last hurrah.
Day by day, it becomes clearer and clearer that Tupou Vaa'i is the heir apparent. A former Head Prefect of Wesley College and the first All Black born in the 21st century, Vaa'i is young enough to still be present in the 2035 Rugby World Cup and after 18 tests, is having another strong season. His 2023 Super Rugby stat sheet includes 89/103 tackles (86%) and 325 metres off 72 carries, displaying the ultimate hybrid of physicality and highlight reel creations.
Loose Forwards:
Although he prefers to play lock, look for Scott Barrett (centre left) to line up at 6 alongside Sam Whitelock (centre right) and Brodie Retallick (right) as the locking duo. Photo: Max Sharp.
Scott Barrett
Age: 29 years old
Height: 1.97m
Weight: 111kg
Test Caps: 58 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 1287 minutes (played across four jerseys)
Clubs: Crusaders, Taranaki
Shannon Frizell
Age: 29 years old
Height: 1.95m
Weight: 108kg
Test Caps: 25 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 771 minutes (28% of minutes at blindside flanker)
Clubs: Highlanders, Tasman
Sam Cane (C)
Age: 31 years old
Height: 1.89m
Weight: 103kg
Test Caps: 86 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 1248 minutes (46% of minutes available at openside flanker)
Clubs: Chiefs, Bay of Plenty
Dalton Papali'i
Age: 25 years old
Height: 1.93m
Weight: 113kg
Test Caps: 22 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 1039 minutes (38% of minutes available at openside flanker)
Clubs: Blues, Counties Manukau
Ardie Savea
Age: 28 years old
Height: 1.90m
Weight: 100kg
Test Caps: 70 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 1949 minutes (played across three jerseys)
Clubs: Hurricanes, Wellington
Hoskins Sotutu
Age: 24 years old
Height: 1.92m
Weight: 106kg
Test Caps: 14 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 611 minutes (22% of minutes available at number 8)
Clubs: Blues, Counties Manukau
Savea has played minutes at blindside, openside and number 8 throughout the World Cup cycle, including 58% of the minutes that Foster has offered in the 8 jersey. His only trusted backup is Sotutu. Though Sotutu's lack of versatility means he hasn't quite had enough action as we all suspected, he has indeed started whenever Savea has been unavailable, while he was benched for the crucial England game in 2022. Cane, the captain, has also played 14 minutes at number 8 under Foster, but has exclusively played at openside flanker for his remaining time.
Cane's backup, Papali'i, captains the Blues, offers dynamic impact off the bench and the height to balance the lineout, which firmly shuts the door on any challengers for the 7 jersey, especially with Savea's ability to play there. Papali'i also had a 59-minute stint at 6 against Ireland. As for blindside, the leader of the jersey's depth chart is Akira Ioane with 1055 minutes (40%); but that share is an example of some highly distorted data for two reasons. The first reason is Shannon Frizell's court case from 2021, while injury to Cane that year, permitted Foster to pick a specialist 6 in test matches. In Townsville for example, Ioane was at 6, Ethan Blackadder at 7 and Savea at 8.
Cane has since returned and started in 18 of the 34 tests under the Foster regime. 10/18 of the tests that Cane has started, has seen either Frizell or Scott Barrett, start as a third lock to cover 6. Frizell has covered lock for the Highlanders many-a-time in 2023, while Barrett has actually played more total minutes than Ioane across the Foster era, though this has been done so over four different jerseys (4 & 5 - 1039 minutes; 6 - 230 minutes & 8 - 18 minutes in Perth after injury to Savea).
While 3 locks seems a little light, there are, technically speaking, five of them; given this peculiar selection criteria for the loose forwards. Should Retallick or Whitelock be injured like in 2022, look to see Barrett at lock and Frizell at 6. The door is also firmly shut on any blindside flanker shorter than 1.93m, for these same reasons.
Halfbacks:
Scottish-born Blues halfback, Finlay Christie (pictured for the Blues in 2021), will line up alongside several club-level teammates at the World Cup. Photo: Max Sharp.
Aaron Smith
Age: 34 years old
Height: 1.73m
Weight: 83kg
Test Caps: 114 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 1359 minutes (50% of minutes available at halfback)
Clubs: Highlanders, Manawatū
Brad Weber
Age: 32 years old
Height: 1.72m
Weight: 75kg
Test Caps: 18 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 307 minutes (11% of minutes available at halfback)
Clubs: Chiefs, Hawke's Bay
Finlay Christie
Age: 27 years old
Height: 1.77m
Weight: 82kg
Test Caps: 14 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 427 minutes (16% of minutes available at halfback)
Clubs: Blues, Tasman
As tempting as it will be for Foster to take Cam Roigard's individual efforts for the Hurricanes, Joe Schmidt's carefully-crafted adjustments to the team's spine will keep Roigard waiting until 2024. Aaron Smith will not be challenged for the 9 jersey at all, as he extends his run as the most-capped back in the All Blacks' history in his third World Cup.
Regarding Smith's backups, the entirety of the All Blacks' second-choice spine (barring Taukei'aho at hooker), play for the Blues at club-level, with the third-choices (barring Coles) all play for the Chiefs. Do not be dismayed by a possible exclusion of Roigard though, as those in the current pecking order do indeed have the chance to be rewarded for form. Weber is just 120 minutes behind Christie on the 9 depth chart, is the closest replica available to Smith and has been to a World Cup before.
What's been excellent to see too, has been Christie's willingness to defend in 2023, his jackle threat has been huge for the Blues. Crucially, these three players all lead Roigard (2) for try assists, with 12 to Smith, 5 to Christie and 4 for Weber in Super Rugby so far. Weber's 93% tackle rate is the pick of the bunch.
First-Fives:
40-test All Black, Damian McKenzie (centre-right), looks to distribute to Jared Proffit (centre) in a Chiefs match against the Reds. Photo: Max Sharp.
Richie Mo'unga
Age: 29 years old
Height: 1.76m
Weight: 83kg
Test Caps: 44 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 1638 minutes (61% of minutes available at first-five)
Clubs: Crusaders, Canterbury
Damian McKenzie
Age: 28 years old
Height: 1.77m
Weight: 78kg
Test Caps: 40 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 746 minutes (played across five jerseys)
Clubs: Chiefs, Waikato
Beauden Barrett
Age: 32 years old
Height: 1.87m
Weight: 91kg
Test Caps: 112 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 1598 minutes (played across two jerseys)
Clubs: Blues, Taranaki
All of the minutes on the 10 depth chart from the Foster era remain valid, with just four players trusted in the position. Two previous uploads of mine, comparing Richie Mo'unga and Beauden Barrett, have aged very well. Joe Schmidt, who coached Barrett at the Blues, made a near-instant restoration of Mo'unga to the 10 jersey when he took over as attack coach, looking to make depth charts of the team's spine, reflect the regular starters. Mo'unga also continues to perform well, justifying his selection.
Schmidt's slight tinkering with the pecking order in 2022 has also seen Barrett become the second-choice player at both 10 (976 minutes played), and 15 (622 minutes played). Barrett has had a poor season of aimless kicking and has a tackle rate of just 77% for the Super Rugby season, but he won't be dropped due to his experience.
However, if you ever want to make some last-minute alterations to the spine of your team, club-level cohesion from other players in your national team is the way to go. Although McKenzie is well behind Barrett at both 10 (116 minutes played) and 15 (585 minutes played), he is still an experienced player with 40 tests and this factor means he can fulfil the same tactical role as Barrett, while we all know McKenzie is the best impact player in the world. Considering the fact that Taukei'aho is the second-choice hooker and Weber's opportunity to re-gain his place as the second-choice halfback, McKenzie has enough time available to re-gain the lead on the fullback depth chart and beat Barrett to the bench at the World Cup, thanks to his club-level cohesion with Taukei'aho and Weber that could be used off the bench.
Midfielders:
Jordie Barrett played 276 minutes of test rugby at 12 during 2022, but will likely remain at fullback, as examined in an analysis video uploaded to The Black Jersey on YouTube.
David Havili
Age: 28 years old
Height: 1.84m
Weight: 96kg
Test Caps: 25 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 1213 minutes (45% of minutes available at second-five)
Clubs: Crusaders, Tasman
Rieko Ioane
Age: 26 years old
Height: 1.89m
Weight: 103kg
Test Caps: 59 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 2006 minutes (played across three jerseys)
Clubs: Blues, Auckland
Anton Lienert-Brown
Age: 28 years old
Height: 1.85m
Weight: 101kg
Test Caps: 60 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 979 minutes (played across two jerseys)
Clubs: Chiefs, Waikato
Braydon Ennor
Age: 25 years old
Height: 1.87m
Weight: 94kg
Test Caps: 6 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 240 minutes (8% of minutes available at centre)
Clubs: Crusaders, Canterbury
As controversial as the likely selection of Braydon Ennor may be, there haven't really been any uncapped specialist 12s to put their hands up in Super Rugby during 2023, meaning that versatile players will instead be the back-up options at 12. Ennor is Havili's Crusaders teammate and has the versatility to cover wing. Although he has indeed had two very poor test matches against Italy and Japan, Ennor's distribution has improved to show 7 offloads and 3 try assists for his Super Rugby season; while his defence has improved to a rate of 84%.
While Havili may not be joined by Tasman teammates in midfield, he'll suit up alongside Mo'unga at 10, while he has played massive minutes in combination with both Ioane and Lienert-Brown. Lienert-Brown has only played four Super Rugby games in 2023, but has missed just two tackles so far this year, having also run 182 metres off only 19 carries. Lienert-Brown will have lost his place in the starting lineup due to his hefty injury run, but has the experience and an ability to cover both 12 and 13, that will see him remain a useful bench option.
A well-balanced duo of Havili and Ioane will almost certainly remain the first-choice combination, despite conspiracy theories surrounding Jordie Barrett. Foster used Havili as a substitute three times in a row in the 2021 end-of-year tour, before restoring him to the starting XV for 2022, look for his 2022 appearances off the bench to be in a similar mould ahead of this season. Havili's kicking and distribution, blended with Ioane's pace and support lines compliment each other well, while Havili has bulked up in the off-season and has beaten more defenders (27) off fewer carries (72) than Ioane (16 def. beaten, 98 carries) and Barrett (17 def. beaten, 101 carries) in Super Rugby.
Outside Backs:
2-test All Blacks winger, Mark Telea (pictured at Eden Park), leads Super Rugby Pacific for defenders beaten, with 73 in total off 103 carries. Photo: Max Sharp.
Jordie Barrett
Age: 26 years old
Height: 1.96m
Weight: 103kg
Test Caps: 48 tests
Minutes Played in the 2020s: 2150 minutes (played across four jerseys)
Clubs: Hurricanes, Taranaki
Will Jordan
Age: 25 years old
Height: 1.88m
Weight: 94kg
Test Caps: 21 tests
Clubs: Crusaders, Tasman
Caleb Clarke
Age: 24 years old
Height: 1.84m
Weight: 107kg
Test Caps: 15 tests
Clubs: Blues, Auckland
Mark Telea
Age: 26 years old
Height: 1.86m
Weight: 94kg
Test Caps: 2 tests
Clubs: Blues, North Harbour
Emoni Narawa
Age: 23 years old
Height: 1.84m
Weight: 98kg
Test Caps: uncapped
Clubs: Chiefs, Bay of Plenty
We can discuss minutes played all we want, but such a factor won't matter at all for the wingers, their position is usually based on form alone. For fullback on the other hand, this is crucial. Jordie Barrett has played the most test minutes of any player in the Ian Foster era, so is the most important player in this team. Barrett has played 54 minutes at 11, 324 minutes at 12, 404 minutes at 14 and 1369 total minutes at 15. While he's faded into the background of this Super Rugby season regarding form, Barrett will provide the big boot and defensive safety net required at fullback and though this is the case, McKenzie's impact off the bench will see Barrett either shuffle to wing or centre in some cases.
As for the wingers, they pick themselves.
Clarke has built a reputation as a double-edged sword with powerful carrying and tackling, but poor defensive positioning. Foster however, will likely wish to retain Clarke after his progress under the high ball and though Clarke's kicking hasn't reached a high level, he has began to do it. Will Jordan is yet to play any test-level minutes at fullback, but has been Foster's first-choice on the right wing and will likely get a chance at 15 against either Uruguay or Namibia.
As for out-and-out wingers who are in form, Mark Telea and Emoni Narawa are certainties. Telea leads Narawa for all attack stats aside from try assists, but with injuries mounting, there will be room for both, who have incredibly low error rates that are crucial in tests. Most importantly, both are a rare breed of winger who can actually tackle; Narawa's tackle rate is 89% for 2023, while Telea sits at 84%. The All Blacks bolter for 2023, is Emoni Narawa.
Players who miss the cut:
Rugby Championship picks who may miss out:
Foster's media interviews have suggested a 36-man squad will be picked for the 2023 Rugby Championship, meaning three players amongst this bunch will miss the cut for the World Cup. The aforementioned circumstances of the loose forward depth charts will see Akira Ioane, as likely to miss the cut.
Selection criteria at openside flanker may not work in Akira Ioane's favour, as Ian Foster tends to start two of them in tests. Photo: Max Sharp.
Ioane has accrued just 7 games of Super Rugby so far in 2023, while when he has indeed been injury-free, Samipeni Finau and Cameron Suafoa (both uncapped) have outperformed him. Although those two fit the "lock at 6" bill more so than Ioane, expect Ioane to still be picked, they'll want the man with the most minutes on the depth chart to be there if Cane is injured.
As for the backs, Shaun Stevenson and Levi Aumua have been touted by many for a World Cup squad. Aumua is a better player than Ennor without question. He's a number 13 with lots of power even after a 10kg weight loss, but can indeed distribute to a high level. The only issue is that Aumua last played alongside Havili for Tasman in 2021, while he doesn't play Super Rugby with Lienert-Brown or Ioane. As for Stevenson at fullback, if Will Jordan can't even play a single minute in the position at test level, what hopes does Stevenson have of doing so?
Shaun Stevenson (passing the ball) is Super Rugby's leading try-scorer with 11 so far, but may not make the cut, with a tackle rate of 73% for the season. Photo: Max Sharp.
Foster has already set the precedent of a "cap-and-dump" strategy with the likes of Francis Saili, Frank Halai, Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, Augustine Pulu, George Moala, Seta Tamanivalu and Josh Ioane as an assistant coach; while perhaps the most blatant example of this strategy came last year, when Foster dropped Pita Gus Sowakula. After just 28 minutes of test rugby in 2 caps; Sowakula lost his ability to play for Fiji until 2025. Scarily enough, my wife suspected this would indeed happen to Sowakula, who probably could have played another 8-10 tests in black.
Considering Stevenson's eligibility for Samoa and defensive woes in 2023, as well as the fact that Aumua is eligible for Australia, Fiji and Samoa; these two could well be next in-line for such an event. Hopefully it doesn't happen though.
As for players who may not play test rugby in 2023:
Blues veterans Patrick Tuipulotu and Nepo Laulala, could be possible omissions after recent injury-induced form slumps, as they don't command a necessarily convincing share of their respective depth charts. Tuipulotu is fourth on the lock depth chart and just two minutes ahead of Vaa'i, while Laulala will soon be overtaken by Lomax.
Folau Fakatava may be in the same boat as he regularly comes on as a substitute for the Highlanders, Stephen Perofeta also played just 83 minutes in his 3 tests for 2023. Both of these two players have also been injured in 2023, though they have since recovered.
Leicester Fainga'anuku may pay the price for his impending signing with Toulon, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck's signing to return to the Warriors is a similar situation; while Asafo Aumua, Josh Lord, Jack Goodhue, Luke Jacobson and Ethan Blackadder, all unfortunately failed to play test rugby in 2022 due to varying reasons. Expect Lord and Blackadder to get re-called by Scott Robertson in 2024.
Players unavailable due to injury:
While we will always celebrate those who make it into the team, let's also take some time to acknowledge the players who have had their chances of selection ruined by injury. Some of the players in this list (correct as of the time of writing) won't have the game time available to showcase a proper talent display of their skills and tactical value, while others have been ruled out of professional rugby for the rest of 2023.
Chiefs centre, Quinn Tupaea, will almost certainly miss the 2023 Rugby World Cup, with a return date from his torn ACL, looking to be around early August. Photo: Max Sharp.
Injury Ward as of 28/05/2023:
Quinn Tupaea (Chiefs, 14 tests)
Angus Ta'avao (Chiefs, 23 tests)
TJ Perenara (Hurricanes, 80 tests)
Fletcher Newell (Crusaders, 5 tests)
Alex Hodgman (Blues, 4 tests)
Sevu Reece (Crusaders, 23 tests)
George Bower (Crusaders, 22 tests)